Hey Kids! Fun Time 2022 Oscar® Predictions!

Emilia Jones in CODA, a front runner for the 2022 Best Picture Oscar

Yes, it’s that time again - the 94th Academy Awards® Ceremony is tonight, and I’ve got my predictions ready. After last year’s weird ceremony with no official host at Union Station in downtown Los Angeles, the show is back at the Dolby Theatre at the Hollywood & Highland Center, and this time, there are three hosts - Amy Schumer, Wanda Sykes and Regina Hall - who I’m sure will bring the funny.

This Oscars further displays how much the streaming services are gaining ground in these races. Netflix got 27 nominations for 10 titles, while Apple got six, Amazon got four, and Hulu got one. The two front runners (CODA, and THE POWER OF THE DOG) in the Best Picture showdown is basically Apple vs. Netflix. But let’s get right to it my complete, final predictions of what’s gonna go down tonight:

1. BEST PICTURE:  Jane Champion’s THE POWER OF THE DOG

Sien Heder’s CODA has picked up a lot of Oscar buzz late in the game, and many critics from such outlets including the New York Times, Variety, IndieWire, and Vulture are predicting that it’ll win the big one, but I have a feeling that Jane Campion’s THE POWER OF THE DOG, an early major contender will still out. It would be fun to have an upset in this category, like if BELFAST or LICORICE PIZZA somehow got more votes. I won’t be surprised if CODA wins, as it’s so much more of a crowd pleaser than POWER OF THE DOG, but I’m gonna still go with the Campion crowd.

2. BEST DIRECTOR: Jane Champion (THE POWER OF THE DOG) Same deal here.

3. BEST ACTOR: Will Smith (KING RICHARD) 

I’m not the biggest Will Smith fan, but I think he’s excellent in this film as the stubborn tennis coach father bully, Richard Williams, and deserves to take home the gold. Several weeks ago, I would’ve said Benedict Cumberbatch was a lock for TPOTD, but Smith has the edge now, and I bet his acceptance speech will be epic.

4. BEST ACTRESS: Jessica Chastain (THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE)

This may be the toughest category in a program full of tough category as there doesn’t appear to be an actress that doesn’t have a big chance. Nate Jones of Vulture wrote, “Many categories, including Best Picture, seem like genuine fifty-fifty calls. (Best Actress might be 20-20-20-20-20.)” I’m going with Chastain, whose performance as the scandal queen televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker was stunning, despite the actual film being way less so. Like Smith, it’s her third Oscar nomination, so I’m counting on it being the charm.

5. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Troy Kotsur (CODA)

Now, I’ll be very surprised if this guy doesn’t win this. He’s the best thing in CODA, and he’s already won a British Academy Film Award, a Screen Actors Guild Award, and a Critics' Choice Award, and stole the show at each ceremony. If he wins, he’ll be the first deaf actor to score the statue (his CODA co-star, Marlee Matlin, was the first deaf actress to win an Oscar for CHILDREN OF A LESSER GOD in 1987), so that’ll be a cool thing.

6. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ariana Debose (WEST SIDE STORY)

I don’t have a strong feeling on this one, I’m just seeing that just about everyone is saying this is a lock, and I’m going with the flow.

Now here’s the rest of the categories, the ones that are getting the shaft this year by their exclusion from the live broadcast.

BRIGHT STAR: The Film Babble Blog Review

BRIGHT STAR (Dir. Jan Campion, 2009)



A poem isn’t something to “work out”, John Keats (Ben Whishaw) tells Fanny Brawne (Abbie Cornish). It’s something to “luxuriate in” he explains. Keats scorns the craft of poetry believing that it must come as naturally to a poet as the leaves comes to the trees. Brawne is quite taken with Keats with a fascination that quickly becomes infatuation, but is it for him or for his words? The film seems to be in the same boat; Keats is a poor man who could never fully provide for Brawne, yet as history later confirms, he is rich in romantic poetry and that is all she cares about.

In her first film since IN THE CUT (2003), Jane Campion returns to the picturesque period piece palette of her breakthrough THE PIANO (1993). She gives us the last 3 years of John Keats’ life rendered un-romantically but beautifully nevertheless. He spends his days lounging around his Hamstead house with his dear friend and writing partner Charles Armitage Brown (Paul Schneider) seemingly waiting for inspiration to arise. Scene stealer Schneider portrays Brown as a boorish lout who is over-protective of Keats. However as Keats suffers a severe bout of tuberculosis, Brown’s stance becomes more and more valid.

Brawne falls for the doomed poet and bathes in his words whether they come from the printed page or a folded letter, but knows that her mother and society in general would not approve. We, of course, are aware that there is no happy ending here but even if one has no knowledge of any biographical information the tale is told with such an engaging emphasis on the fragility of love that its pathos is no less powerful.

With no showy tricks or stylish staging, Campion provides a sad splendor to what in someone else's hands might amount to just another costume drama. Whishaw, who has portrayed other notable tortured artists such as Bob Dylan (I’M NOT THERE) and Keith Richards (STONED), brings a quiet passion to the part of Keats which can be summoned simply in his suggestive smirk. It’s Cornish’s movie though and her performance is as much a work of beauty as the film surrounding her. As Whishaw’s recitation of Keat’s famous lines serenaded the end credits it was hard for me to leave my seat. For BRIGHT STAR isn’t just a fine film to take in and then exit, it’s one to luxuriate in.

More later...